The 2025 Story: Why Structure Matters
As we navigate 2026, family offices require clear, actionable intelligence to protect and grow multi-generational wealth. Charles Park Family Office is pleased to share our perspective on key insights from our partners at Galilei Investment Office, whose latest market review offers crucial guidance for UHNW families.
According to Galilei’s analysis, 2025 proved why robust family office structures are essential. Markets experienced extraordinary turbulence following the Trump administration’s April tariff announcements, with global indices suffering double-digit declines. However, subsequent policy reversals triggered a remarkable recovery – Galilei reports that the S&P 500 rallied 35% from its April lows.
For family offices, this volatility reinforced a fundamental principle: professionally managed, diversified portfolios enable families to weather short-term disruption whilst capturing long-term returns. Families with proper governance structures and dedicated investment oversight were positioned to navigate this turbulence effectively.
2026 Outlook: Constructive but Requires Vigilance
Galilei maintains a risk-on positioning for 2026, underpinned by several factors relevant to family office planning:
Economic Foundations
The US economy has demonstrated resilience. Galilei notes that whilst job openings have declined, real wages continue rising and unemployment remains relatively low. Critically, services inflation, which is most sensitive to wage inflation, has stayed controlled despite tariffs and large fiscal deficits.
Policy Tailwinds
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) tax cuts are expected to support the economy in 2026. According to Galilei, tariffs detracted -0.5% from GDP growth in 2025, but in 2026 this process reverses to some extent as the tax cuts from the OBBBA start to filter through. For family offices managing complex tax structures, understanding these policy shifts is essential for strategic planning.
Liquidity Environment
Galilei’s research reveals that over $5 trillion of money has flowed into bonds and money markets since the start of Covid. The report emphasises that
“until this liquidity is withdrawn, investors should expect continued downside support for markets.”
This abundant liquidity provides a cushion for family office portfolios, though vigilance remains essential.
Critical Themes for Family Office Strategy
Galilei identifies six long-term macro themes that should inform family office investment approaches. We highlight three with particular relevance:
Structural Inflation and Interest Rates
Galilei points to constrained labour supply, industry consolidation, and underinvestment driving structurally higher inflation. For family offices, this suggests careful attention to real asset allocation and inflation-protected investments. The report notes persistently higher interest rates will continue, requiring families to reassess borrowing strategies and fixed-income allocations.
AI and Technological Disruption
Whilst acknowledging concerns about AI capital expenditure sustainability, Galilei sees promise in the technology’s evolution. They state:
“We believe a big part of this will be the shift in AI focus to inference (using AI to do tasks which are useful to people, as opposed to training), which is far cheaper to operate than training.”
For family offices, understanding which businesses genuinely benefit from AI adoption – versus those merely investing heavily – will be crucial for portfolio construction.
Geopolitical and Policy Uncertainty
The report discusses potential Federal Reserve independence challenges and ongoing trade tensions. Family offices require structures capable of responding nimbly to policy shifts without reactive decision-making.
Sector Opportunities Through a Family Office Lens
Precious Metals
Galilei’s analysis reveals that
“the gold rally is driven by central bank buying, but may continue due to gold’s low share of reserves.”
For families concerned about currency debasement or geopolitical risk, gold may merit consideration as a portfolio diversifier.
Emerging Markets
According to the report, the interest rate-cutting cycle weakened the US dollar, easing liquidity for dollar-dependent countries and prompting the best year for stock market returns in many emerging market countries since 2017. Family offices with global mandates should evaluate selective emerging market exposure.
Energy and Infrastructure
Galilei’s discussion of geopolitical developments highlights opportunities in oil equipment and services providers who can operate in difficult jurisdictions, not the oil producers themselves. This points to infrastructure investment opportunities that may suit family office risk profiles.
Looking Ahead
Galilei’s overall assessment captures both their constructive outlook and measured approach:
“We remain constructive on the economy and on markets for 2026. While AI capital expenditures are likely unsustainable in the medium term, the adoption of AI technology does offer the potential for meaningful productivity gains, which can help sustain economic momentum. We have maintained our risk-on positioning, as we believe that the combination of continued consumer income growth, heavy government deficit spending, and a more accommodative interest rate environment should prevent a meaningful economic slowdown. However, our asset allocation remains diversified, as always, to ensure our portfolios can weather any bumps.”
This balanced perspective resonates strongly with family office principles. The complexity of today’s investment landscape – from AI disruption to geopolitical tensions to shifting monetary policy – demands sophisticated analysis and professional coordination.
At Charles Park Family Office, we work alongside UHNW families to ensure their wealth structures and investment strategies align with both current market realities and multi-generational objectives. Our approach combines strategic guidance with practical implementation, always maintaining focus on each family’s unique circumstances and goals.
Download the Full Report
To read Galilei’s complete report, including detailed analysis and comprehensive data, please visit this link.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Families should consult with their professional advisers before making investment decisions.
About Charles Park Family Office
Charles Park Family Office provides comprehensive advisory services to ultra-high-net-worth individuals ,families and family offices. For confidential discussions about your family’s wealth management needs, please contact our team.